So, how can we know if we are on the right track, or the on the wrong one?
Well, the starting point is clear, we come with a hypothesis such as
- Our product does A, B, and C
- Our product is good for people that have pains X, Y, Z
And then we fall
What do I mean by fall?
I mean that it takes us too long (months and sometimes even years) to understand that we are in the wrong direction, either we miss something in the product, or we are not answering a real pain. The lucky ones are able to do the necessary modification. The not-so-lucky-ones are doomed.
Have you ever thought "Why it takes us so long to see a mistake, which in retrospect seems so obvious?"
I found the answer in the book called "The black swan" (I think it is an excellent book). The author explains that as human beings, we are conditioned to seek for positive signs to prove our theories. Since, in most cases, it is easy to find some positive indications why our hypothesis still holds, we will not let it go so easily.
There is another way!
Instead (or in addition to) finding positive indications, we can look for an indication that if found, the hypothesis cannot be valid anymore. This is very difficult though, we are not used to think this way.
I know this is kind of blurry, so let me give you an example:
Suppose you assume you have a market X
Put a test where you invite your users and enhance artificially their incentive to use your product. Now if they still are not using it, then you know that this is not your market. The user does not want you
We have to learn the truth very early, we have to try and KILL our hypothesis and continue to modify it until it survives. Then we know we have something good
There is a scientific way of planning such predicted effects experiments. I might shed more light on this in another post, should you find this subject interesting
Check yourself and write me
Amir
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